Which qb should i draft

If a guy gets 50 percent of his season-long production in one game, does that really help you? In other words, the high-level notion of comparing within and not across positions is only being analyzed in terms of projections or how many points a player is going to score. Bust rates, in essence, measure how well a position performs given preseason expectations. Rather than simply looking at how those positions bust at the beginning of drafts and moving on, we really should look at how these bust rates compare within the position to see how valuable those players actually are.

But like I said, fantasy owners, unintentionally, can be hypocritical. I certainly am at times, too. This, too, occurs with how you approach the game from a weekly perspective. You do play it from a weekly perspective…right? Well then why are you using season-long projections to justify your stance? He scored about four points fewer than Andrew Luck, and was just nine points off of Cam Newton.

While that number seems a little arbitrary — and it kind of is — a ranking in the top at the position represents a QB1 in a team league. Eight quarterbacks had more weekly top weeks than Dalton did, and an additional five had just as many. Dalton made a living off of monster weeks. Of his top performances usable weeks , he finished second three times, third once and fifth once. A player could consistently finish as the 13th-ranked quarterback and come out looking poor in terms of usable weeks.

But in general, looking at fantasy football from this perspective can give you a glimpse of how a player actually performed because, in the end, fantasy football is a weekly game. This notion of looking at weekly usable weeks versus season-long statistics can drastically change the way you view lineup slots in fantasy football. This is mostly because you begin to see how replaceable positions truly are.

A team league starts 12 quarterbacks each week. We still need to compare them to other positions. That, and how close each quarterback performed to one another. Keep in mind, too, that the data above includes the most historic season in quarterback history.

And, for giggles, he had just four more than Alex Smith 7. Manning was so valuable though because 9 of his 11 usable weeks equated to elite ones. That was two more than Nick Foles, who finished in second with seven.

If you look at Drew Brees, who consistently finishes as a top-two fantasy quarterback year after year, you can start to understand why the quarterback position is replaceable. That, as you can see, was as good as Peyton Manning. Drew Brees was a consistency monster. Four of those five games resulted in the top rank at quarterback in a given week.

Those four games averaged out to be The difference is that Drew Brees consistently will break the top In general though, I think this is the problem and misconception with early-round quarterbacks. The chart below depicts usable and elite performances in at running back and wide receiver. Keep in mind that a usable week at these positions equates to top 24, while an elite one is top The graph above shows us the number of usable weeks from each position on the x-axis, with the number of players hitting a particular mark on the y-axis.

What you notice in the three lines is that the drop-off from one group of quarterbacks to the next is almost completely linear until you hit roughly the 8 usable week tally. This is important. Aaron Rodgers. A few of those quarterbacks were bad , and most of them were quite good -- there was a clear top tier of 12 QBs last season, and nine of them came from the top 12 in ADP.

But reaching for one of the first six off the board didn't guarantee elite production. Over the past five seasons, the No. In , Mahomes finished second and had an ADP of The average pick spent on a top-three QB finisher over the last five seasons? I went through the last five seasons to try to identify the true difference makers at the position and came up with 34 names, an average of almost seven per season -- defining "difference makers" as the players who outscored the top of the next tier of QB by at least as many points as that next tier QB outscored the average of QB12 through QB Of those 34, 17 had an ADP higher than , so exactly half.

Considering that 33 quarterbacks were drafted inside the top over that five-year span, that means your chances of getting a true difference maker at the position were about a coin flip if picking from inside the top Which is to say, while drafting an early-round QB isn't a bad idea -- you have a pretty good chance of getting a must-start Fantasy option -- it's not necessarily the best way to build your roster.

You'll be passing up potential starters at running back or wide receiver to do so -- positions that require more than one starter and where depth is much more valuable. Is that really worth it? Listen below and follow at Apple , Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts :. There are plenty of factors that go into finding a good value at QB, but one key thing to look for is rushing ability. It's not a prerequisite -- 16 of the 34 difference makers at QB rushed for at least 20 yards per game -- but it's a good place to start, because it lowers the margin for error so much.

If you aren't much of a runner, you have to be exceptional as a passer to be a true difference maker at QB. Among the 18 who were below 20 rushing yards per game, their collective per game average was 4, passing yards and The chances of fluking into that kind of season are pretty slim, and you generally need a ton of pass attempts and very good weapons around you to get there. Among the QBs being drafted outside of the top , you've got the likes of Ben Roethlisberger , Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins maybe , Jameis Winston maybe , Tua Tagovailoa and Sam Darnold maybe as the only ones who really have that combination of very good weapons with potential high passing volume.

If you run, it becomes a lot easier. The running QBs on the list of difference makers averaged 4, passing yards and 34 touchdowns per 16 games.

That's a healthy amount of touchdowns, of course, but that rushing group also averaged more Fantasy points per game. The point is, it's a lot easier to get to that elite level if a QB can run. And those QBs are easier to find in the late rounds, because they don't need a huge amount of passing volume or quite as much receiver help to get there. Among those drafted outside of the top , Daniel Jones , Justin Fields , Sam Darnold, Trey Lance , Zach Wilson , Cam Newton , Taysom Hill and Tyrod Taylor if he's starting for the Texans could all conceivably be big enough contributors with their legs to get into that discussion if everything goes right.

Who to start in fantasy football: Week 10 rankings, start-sit advice for PPR, standard, superflex scoring. NFL 6h ago. NFL Week 10 Weather Updates: Light rain, wind, and colder temps in forecast unlikely to affect fantasy start 'em, sit 'em decisions. Is Kyler Murray playing Week 10? Fantasy injury update for Panthers-Cardinals. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. Kyler Murray, Cardinals. Josh Allen, Bills. Russell Wilson, Seahawks. Lamar Jackson, Ravens. Dak Prescott, Cowboys.

Justin Herbert, Chargers. Ryan Tannehill, Titans. Matthew Stafford, Rams. Tom Brady, Buccaneers. Aaron Rodgers, Packers. Jalen Hurts, Eagles. Joe Burrow, Bengals. Kirk Cousins, Vikings. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars. Matt Ryan, Falcons. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. Jameis Winston, Saints. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins. Derek Carr, Raiders. Baker Mayfield, Browns.

Justin Fields, Bears. Trey Lance, 49ers. Daniel Jones, Giants. Carson Wentz, Colts. Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos. Zach Wilson, Jets. Mac Jones, Patriots. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Washington.

Jared Goff, Lions. Tyrod Taylor, Texans. Sam Darnold, Panthers. Andy Dalton, Bears. Drew Lock, Broncos. Taysom Hill, Saints. If you drafted well at the other positions earlier in the draft, this is your ideal scenario. If you miss out on the top two tiers at quarterback -- either on purpose or accidentally -- that's OK. Presumably, the rest of your roster is looking good at this point. Now it would be time to access tiers three and four, finding value in quarterbacks that your leaguemates have minimal interest in.

A lot of the strategy in fantasy football involves being adaptable and feeling out how your fantasy draft is going. Each league and each draft is different. An understanding of tiers will help prevent reaching for and being fixated on certain players. There are many strategies when it comes to the quarterback position, including: Take a Tier-1 stud, find value in the early-middle rounds, punt on QB and draft a sleeper late, or stream a different QB each week.

This list of tiers will help prepare you for any of those strategies, whether you intend on implementing one of them or not. Finding value when certain quarterbacks slip in the draft is key. Below, we dive into the tiers and explain why the QBs are grouped together. Our first tier consists of the three guys who all have a fair argument for being ranked No.

What do these three all share in common? Young age, rushing upside, rocket arm, surrounded by elite talent, and top-notch fantasy showings in the past. What will it cost you to grab one of these prized possessions?

In standard, single-QB leagues, FantasyPros ADP has each taken within the top 31 picks, with Mahomes penciled in at the first pick of the second round That can be quite a pill to swallow. However, you now possess the safest and most reliable stud quarterback in fantasy. Everyone is well aware of his track record, and he has multiple seasons of evidence. Around eight picks later, Josh Allen could come off the board any minute.

Taking him at his ADP of around Brown or Calvin Ridley. Again, a frightening realization. Allen claimed the fantasy QB1 nod in , but we have to remember it was only one season. He has a solid rushing floor, but if he slows down even a little there and maybe isn't quite as sharp through the air, his current ADP is a hefty price to pay.

His ceiling is QB1 and his price still allows you to grab studs at the premier positions, depending on which spot you're picking in the draft. Again, if you're set on drafting a top-tier quarterback, Murray is probably your best value.

These guys won't be taken out of your lineup except for bye weeks. Tier 2 presents a lot of value. Among the three guys in our second tier, each has an ADP after the fourth round. Again, that allows you to take three high-level players at other positions before even contemplating taking a quarterback. Of course, Wilson, Jackson, and Prescott could all wind up being first tier when it's all said and done.

The tier-2 trio all possess outstanding rushing upside and have ceilings of QB1. The difference is the question marks that follow them. Wilson looked like the front-runner for the MVP, and more important for our purposes, the fantasy QB1 after the first four games last year.

However, he finished at QB6 after slowing down a bit. Looking forward, it can be expected that Wilson will begin to run less as he ages. After all, he did express his frustration with the amount of hits he has taken throughout his career. A slightly improved offensive line and a new OC in Seattle seems to signal more pass, less run.

He will be a high-volume passer, but his new presumed rushing ceiling prevents us from listing him in the first tier.

As a result, his ADP isn't cost prohibitive. He's coming off the board around pick 45 as the seventh quarterback selected. That screams value in a spot where the upper echelon of RBs and WRs are already off the board.

However, he burned many fantasy owners in ' Prior to that season, everyone banged the table for Jackson to go as high as the first round.